作者:丁辛秉 来源:原创 时间:2026-08-26 阅读:1035 次

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真相:乌克兰总统泽连斯基的任期到5月20日结束吗?_我的网站

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一 |     

 File picture of US Capitol. Photo: VCG
    File picture of US Capitol. Photo: VCG
The US Senate on Friday overwhelmingly approved a bill that would impose sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, a measure that had long been championed by the late senator Lindsey Graham before his death last month, CNBC reported. A Chinese expert criticized the legislation, warning that if implemented, the bill, driven largely by political motives aimed at catering to US domestic political correctness, could severely disrupt the already fragile global energy market and economy. He also noted that the bill is essentially a tool of political coercion, weaponizing tariffs and unilateral sanctions to hijack normal global energy trade and override sovereign economic choices of independent nations.
The legislation, named The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, aims to hurt Russia's war effort in Ukraine by penalizing purchasers of Russian oil and Russian leaders. It passed with bipartisan support 86-11 and will now proceed to the House, which is on recess until September, per CNBC.
The bill would impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries that are among the top five purchasers of Russian crude oil or gas, which includes China and India.
It also includes sanctions targeting Russian leaders, officials, targeting Russian leaders, oligarchs and financial institutions. At the request of US President Donald Trump, the bill extends sanctions on Iran's weapons and energy sectors, CNBC reported.
Notably, the bill's excessive tariff discretion has sparked fierce internal doubts within US political circles. Representatives Gregory Meeks of New York and Don Beyer of Virginia said in a statement they still had "fundamental concerns" about the tariff powers for the president, who has made them a central piece of his "America First" approach to foreign policy.
"What the bill does grant ... are sweeping new tariff authorities that the president could weaponize with abandon, as he has repeatedly done in the past," said Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Beyer, the senior Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee, according to Reuters.
Chinese experts have strongly criticized the bill's politically driven nature, its economic coercion, and its severe spillover risks to the global economy.
The bill, aimed at putting pressure on Russia, would disrupt global energy markets and create new uncertainties for the world economy if implemented, Yang Jin, associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
Many economies retain legitimate, market-based energy cooperation with Russia out of practical economic and energy security needs. Russia's energy exports have long been a key component of the global energy system, with countries including India and some European nations continuing to rely on Russian oil and gas, said Yang, noting that even some European countries have received exemptions to maintain energy imports from Russia, underscoring the role of Russian supplies in supporting economic stability.
India's reliance on Russian crude increased further after the conflict in West Asia disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. With Gulf supplies affected during the US war on Iran, Indian refiners turned more heavily towards Russian oil as an alternative source, Indian media Hindustan Times reported on Saturday after US Senate passed the bill.
When asked about the bill on July 15, Lin Jian, spokesperson from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or authorization of the UN Security Council, and will take necessary measures to firmly defend the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese businesses and citizens.
Practicing double standards and resorting to coercion and pressuring will eventually prove to be self-defeating, said Lin.
Yang further pointed out that the push for the bill, labeled after Lindsey Graham, who was known as one of the toughest Russia hawks in Washington, lays bare Washington's distorted domestic political logic.
The legislation, which represents another typical case of US hegemonic long-arm jurisdiction, is largely designed to ease US domestic governance pressure. As the Trump administration fails to deliver substantive progress in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict as promised, ramping up external sanctions and forcing third-party sovereign countries into abandoning normal economic and trade cooperation has become a convenient political tool for US politicians to showcase tough posturing and ease domestic pressure, Yang said.
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最近几天,随着5月20日的临近,不断有媒体在标题上宣称,乌克兰总统泽连斯基的任期不到十天了,只剩九天了,只剩七天了,最后三天了,等等。
还有一些媒体说,5月20日之后,乌克兰总统泽连斯基的任期就结束了。他就不再是乌克兰的合法总统了。
更有一些网友不嫌事大,说俄罗斯已经开始通缉泽连斯基,5月20日之后,他不是总统了,就可以抓他了。说得忽悠忽悠。
因此,在这里,我必须首先纠正一下这些作者的说法,即“乌克兰总统泽连斯基的任期只剩下几天了”,这个结论百分百是错误的。

二 |

2019年,泽连斯基在乌克兰第二轮选举中击败前总统波罗申科获胜,并于当年5月20日宣誓就职,任期5年。
所谓泽连斯基的5年任期到今年5月20日结束,是按照原来和平时期的乌克兰法律规定的。但是,众所周知,乌克兰在2022年2月之后遭遇了一场全面战争,而且战争至今尚未结束。
正常情况下,乌克兰应该在今年3月举行大选,但是因国家处于战争状态,总统选举无限期推迟。
根据乌克兰最高拉达(议会)2023年11月通过的新法律——在战时暂停总统选举。现任总统泽连斯基的总统任期,将根据乌克兰最高拉达确定的战争状态延长。
请注意,确定乌克兰是不是处于战争状态、是不是应该进行总统选举的权力,不属于泽连斯基这个总统,而属于乌克兰最高拉达;而且,乌克兰的战争状态以每三个月为期。如果三个月到期后,乌克兰最高拉达(议会)认为战争已经结束或基本结束,就可以宣布结束战争状态。根据乌克兰法律,一旦战争状态结束,就要确定时间开展新一届总统的选举。
也就是说,现任总统泽连斯基的任期,将以每三个月为期进行延长。到期前总统提出申请,最高拉达批准再延期,则总统任期再延长三个月。
不管泽连斯基的总统任期是延长三个月还是六个月,他都是乌克兰的合法总统。
最新的信息是,乌克兰最高拉达已经批准将目前的战争状态再延长三个月,即泽连斯基的总统任期将首次延长到今年8月20日。
所以,“乌克兰总统泽连斯基的任期只剩下几天了”,这是法盲的说法,与乌克兰法律规定不符。而且这一说法,经常见于俄罗斯官员或媒体,目的是诋毁、削弱乌克兰总统的合法性。
至于有文章说,泽连斯基“将会一再延长战时状态来延续自己的政治生命,他担心战后会被清算”,纯属无稽之谈。
如果这样的说法靠谱的话,那么俄罗斯总统普京应该立即宣布从乌克兰撤军,立即结束乌克兰的战争状态,从而让泽连斯基的政治生命结束、让泽连斯基政权立即垮台。

三 |

现在,战争进行到第三年,乌克兰为抵抗俄罗斯的进攻已经付出了巨大的生命财产代价,丢失了东部地区四个州的大部分土地;开战之初的乌军精锐(20万正规军)已经损失殆尽;尤其是,5月10日开始,俄罗斯军队再次打响哈尔科夫之战,企图夺取这个位于乌克兰东北部的该国第二大城市。
那么,乌克兰接下来的抗战还能否坚持,泽连斯基手上还有哪些牌,会不会把一手好牌打得稀烂?
泽连斯基手上还有哪些牌,我不知道。

四 | 但是,他没有把一手好牌打得稀烂的可能性,他也没有把一手好牌打得稀烂的资格和能力。

五 |

最重要的是,从2019年5月上任至今,泽连斯基的手里什么时候有过一手好牌?从来就没有过

六 | 他上任的时候,克里米亚半岛已经丢了5年,乌克兰政府军与俄罗斯支持的乌东割据反叛武装的冲突也已经持续了5年,他接手的是一个与俄罗斯正在发生冲突的国家,他接手是一个国内亲俄势力与本土腐败势力拉扯造成政治分裂的国家。

七 |

正是由于乌克兰人民对当朝政治人物的集体失望,对国家发展方向遭遇东西撕扯的无力,他们才将选票投给了一位没有任何政治背景、没有任何从政经历、也没有执政班底的41岁年轻人泽连斯基。

八 |

在此之前,泽连斯基对国家和政治的所有了解,仅仅是因为他在一部热播的电视喜剧里饰演了一位受到欢迎的总统。
实际上,在泽连斯基上任的前三年,2019年5月至2022年2月,他的表现并不出色,国内、国际各种摆不平。但是,谁能想到,一块突如其来的战争,让他瞬间成为乌克兰这个国家不投降、不屈服、不逃跑,坚守在首都基辅的抗战英雄。
在乌克兰政坛上招摇了几十年、多次竞选总统的前美女总理季莫申科说,开战前,我经常骂泽连斯基,我对他各种不满,但是现在,我愿意为他工作,不会对他发出任何怨言。没有乌克兰,我什么也不是。
季莫申科现在乌克兰总统办公室担任副主任,身份就是个打杂的。
甚至在2019年的总统竞选中与泽连斯基竞争的前总统波罗申科,也放下任何政治算计,自觉加入乌克兰抗战的行列,拿出自家的钱财为乌克兰军队捐款捐物。

九 |

所以,泽连斯基手里有什么牌?对于泽连斯基来说,他的牌,他的底气,他的精神支持,就是他的人民、他的军队、他的执政团队、他的外国盟友、他的国际支持。
战争打到第三年,乌克兰的国家实力遭严重削弱,毕竟世界第二大军事强国对邻居小国的军事打击和摧毁,已经持续两年多,造成的伤害是非常严重的。战前四千多万人口的国家,现在实际控制的人口不到三千万。

十 | 但是,乌克兰作为一个国家的精气神还在,泽连斯基手里的底牌也都还在,没有任何变化。

十一 |

当然,乌克兰当前的最大困难,是如何在战争条件下生存,如何在强大邻国的持续攻击下仍然站着不倒下,这包括:前线兵力不足、武器弹药不足,长年战争下乌军士气遭到削弱、后方保障能力下降;乌克兰全国的能源、铁路和军工等重要保障系统,持续遭到俄罗斯的袭击和轰炸,等等。
当下的乌克兰,尽管国内团结抗战、国外持续援助,但仍然面临战争之下的生存危机,但是乌克兰人必须抗战。没有抗战,就没有乌克兰;没有抗战,就没有乌克兰人民和国家的独立自主。
个人认为,只要乌克兰总统泽连斯基继续领导抗战,只要乌克兰人民和军队坚持抵抗、抗战到底,乌克兰就不会失败!
最后,通报一下,俄罗斯当局已经悄悄地撤销了对泽连斯基的所谓通缉令。谁也不知道为什么,就像当初谁也不知道俄罗斯为啥要通缉他一样。
延伸阅读:普京临走前突然公开:俄罗斯没计划占领乌克兰的哈尔科夫
延伸阅读:跟着环球胡总讨论:俄乌战争背景下,网友该如何对待俄罗斯?
延伸阅读:泽连斯基:俄罗斯军队已侵入乌克兰哈尔科夫地区10公里

十二 |

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Published on:15:39:53